George W. Bush, one month after the beginning of the Iraqi war, said that « the world is safer now », but Dianne Feinstein, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman (who is also heading the production of the incoming “Torture Report”), answered to him in 2013, saying that “America is less safe from terrorism today than it has been in recent years”. After 2001, the numbers of incidents and fatalities from terrorist incidents has quadrupled, from 982 incidents and 3 823 fatalities in 2002, to 4 564 incidents and 7 473 fatalities in 2011. And Iraq is the first victim of these attacks. On Sunday 24 August, for instance, 44 persons have been killed in Iraq. 1 203 civilians have been killed in August 2014, according to website Iraq Body Count. In total, between 127 822 and 143 110 civilians have died in the country since the 2003 invasion. In 2013, global terrorism again rose 43% according to a US State Department report. All of the countries that have been invaded by the USA, and their regional allies, like Pakistan, as well, have been the breeding ground for more terrorism than the « war on terror » would have ever managed to curb. The US “war on terrorism” has failed to create the conditions for peace, and furthermore has increased the terrorist risk in the world. The emergence of the Islamic State is the last proof of this failure, and it was only possible because the US intervention left Iraq in a much, much worse shape than it was before.
In a scenario that may remind some of the 1980 – 1988 Iran – Irak conflict, commentators of the ongoing ISIS assault on Northern Iraq are suggesting Shi'a Iran is the best positioned to intervene in Iraq by supporting Shi'a proxy militias and even sending special forces. Iraqi Shi'as may also be tempted to think their army abandoned them and be willing to demand protection to militias such as the Mahdi Army, which killed many Sunni Iraqis in 2005 and 2006. Ali Al-Sistani, Iraq's most senior Shi'a cleric, has already issued a call to arms to all Shi'as during Friday's prayers. Thousands are reported to have already joined Shi'a militias to defend Bagdad. ISIS fighters vowed to take Bagdad and to continue south to the sacred cities of the Shi'a, which are visited by millions of pilgrims each year.
Sunni militants have seized control of most of the center and of the south of Iraq's second city, Mosul, while police officers and army soldiers fled the town, leaving weapons, vehicles and even their uniforms to the gunmen. 500 000 of the 2,5 million inhabitants of the city have taken the roads to flee the fightings, according to the International Organisation of Migrations.