The current situation in northern Syria is one of open desperation since little to no humanitarian is being actually given to the Syrians, with the vast majority of the aid coming from the West being almost entirely driven to Turkey and neglecting the thousands of Syrians that are in extreme need for help and aid.
The Syrian regime has also made the situation more complex by attempting to take control of all of the aid, something that the US will not tolerate.
As a consequence of its attitude towards the control of aid to the country been accused of actively playing a game of politics with aid as a result of Syrian ambassador to the UN Bassam Sabbagh declaring that Damascus should be in control of all humanitarian aid to Syria, including to the regions that the Assad regime does not have control over.
The current situation in Syria has proven to be one of extreme severity given the fact that much of the public infrastructure and roads are damaged and filled with snow in a region where 4 million Syrians were already dependent of aid from Turkey by the northern border given the fact that the Turkish government has full control over it according to UN aid specialist.
It should also be added that although there are already strong numbers of dead and injured with the death in northern Syrian mounting to around 769, the numbers are still increasing and the death toll due to lack of effective humanitarian aid in the region will only increase since many Syrian towns do not even have rescue teams.
Although the problem of the vast majority of the aid coming from the West and going only to Turkey has hardly been addressed in a proper manner by most Western European states, the UK´s aid minister Andrew Mitchell has been one of the main figures to acknowledge the current situation of lack of help coming to northern Syria, having added that in order for the aid to come more crossing points from Turkey into the northern region will need to be opened.
European leaders and the EU should and can be more vocal about the lack of help being given to Syrians and should try to reach a deal as soon as possible with the Turkish government to send trough the Turkish state more aid directly specifically towards northern Syria.
It should be added that the Erdogan led regime of Turkey has a clear legal obligation to send aid and contribute to the well being of Syrian in this region according to international law since the Turkish government is currently in control of most of northern Turkey, but is instead until now concentrated all of the aid coming to its country solely on helping Turkish citizens, neglecting Syrians in the process.
Currently, the Assad regime only allows in the rest of Syria which is under its control aid to enter solely from one border crossing, with Damascus remaining resistant towards the proposition of opening aid routes into northern areas since it would strategically hinder its possibility in the medium term to take those regions back to its control.
This is one of the central strategic challenges in effectively bringing aid to the Syrians, since the Damascus government seems to be focused primarily in ultimate control and not in humanitarian aid.
Regardless of this, its going always to require strategically for the Turkish state to help and cooperate for the aid to be delivered effectively in the northern region given its already mentioned control over it with its mercenary militias and military, and consequently the current lack of attention that the Turkish government is giving to the situation in northern Syria is the other serious challenge to aid coming to Syrians as its is coming to Turks.
This situation has proven to be a strategically too complex one for a rapid change actually take place, and consequently although the UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres has assured that the UN will do all it can to help Syrians, it will in effect have little strategic freedom to effectively give the necessary aid.
One of the main reasons for this situation is the fact that United States is unwilling to allow the Damascus government to take control of the aid since it is not in the strategic interests of the US government to help the Assad regime, which it openly opposes and that is a regime that is in an open confrontation with its strategic regional ally Israel.
Europe and most Western European states have the wish to contribute for Syria to be economically recovered in order to ease the migration situation and stabilize the region, however under the current scenario of Assad being in control of most of the country and its two main cities, the US has vetoed with its power the possibility in the past of more help for the reconstruction of Syria to actually take place.
Consequently, even under the current extreme situations it remains to be seen if the US will change its position although it is highly unlikely.
In addition to this position, in regards to the overall position from the US, the US Secretary of state has ruled out any possibility of aid from the west being given through the Assad government or in cooperation with it, saying that it would be “counterproductive” for the US to reach out to a government hat has “brutalised its people over the course of a dozen years now”, effectually confirming that the US government will continue its policy of open sanctions to the Assad regime.
Washington has however guaranteed that it has reached other valid strategic alternatives, having arranged humanitarian partners on the ground that in the coming weeks will provide the type of assistance that is desperately needed in the northern Syrian region, with the these “partners” being guaranteed to be a safer option for Syrians.
It remains to be seen if these partners will be, although they will most likely be a mixture of Syrian resistance forces and local power-figures that oppose the Syrian Assad regime, with the Kurds probably being involved in it.
The above-mentioned possible solution of the EU reaching a deal with Turkey for a special arrangement to for the establishment of special envoys of aid to northern Syria and the establishment of more entry points through the border could and should be a strategic goal to have into account in the coming weeks.
A strategic priority should be given to recovering critical infrastructure such as roads and electricity since one of the main barriers to the flow of aide to the region is the series of logistical issues regarding the problem with communication given the damage that has happened to the roads, this is something that would also be in Erdogan´s interest since it would further help stabilize the region and possibly stop the flow of more migrants into Turkey, something the EU is also concerned with.
It should be taken into account that these strategic challenges will only be realistically addressed when the damage of the earthquake is more under control inside Turkey, since the Turkish government will focus its resources and give priority into saving its own citizens.
Thus, an equilibrium of resources can only be put into actual practice realistically speaking once the situation gets more stabilized in Turkey.
In addition, a possible future strategic challenge that reflects the tensions of the region will be the strong possibility of clash happening between the western backed aid effort under the leadership of the US and the aid effort of Russia which might make the situation more extreme.
It should be added that it is not in the interest of the US for Syria to become more unstable since such a scenario would only create more free space for terror organizations and prove groups to enter creating a scenario of chaos that would only further destabilize the region even more and make the overall security situation more complex and confusing in Syria for Israel and the US.
Consequently, its in its strategic interest to help rebuild northern Syria.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
