When Trump, earlier this month, announced a special announcement on 15th November 2022, it was quite obvious what he was suggesting. The former President has just announced his candidacy for president of the United States in the 2024 Presidential Elections. This news followed the reports of Republicans taking back the House in the U.S Congress. While the ‘Red Wave’ wasn’t as powerful as the GOP predicted, Republicans are just one seat away from control over the House. While Trump’s assurances to his voters that he will easily win in 2024 are based on Biden’s incapacity in leading America, most Democrats view him as the weakest opponent the GOP can put forward in 2024. However, in 2020, Trump only lost in three states. By around 40,000 votes. He succeeded in bringing out more Americans to cast a ballot in 2020 (Most of them to ensure he does not return to the Presidency). While the ex-President is riddled with controversy and has even reached the cusp of impeachment, should the international community prepare for the coming of Trump 2024?
It would be ignorant to dismiss the effects of the Trump Presidency on the International Community. Between 2017-2021 his policies were both radical and impractical and had a dire impact on international trade, immigration and the environment. President Biden’s promises of picking up after the former President’s destructive legacy in foreign and domestic policy may have taken a back seat while dealing with the Ukraine-Russia Conflict, the U.S Pull Out from Afghanistan and grave issues within the country. Whether Trump would qualify as the Republican nominee for 2024, let alone the President, can only be determined by the American population, the international community must be prepared for 2024 amidst all the chaos in the world today.
America’s allies in Europe seem relieved of the narrow mid-term election margins, which would ensure that the US will not pull out their support to Ukraine against Russian aggression. However, amidst this, it is likely that some members of the GOP, at least the ones who endorsed and backed Trump, would create hurdles for the current administration in continuing their support. The GOP has suggested impeaching President Biden once in the majority and dealing with this opposition from Congress could distract the Biden Administration from focusing on important international matters spanning from policies on China and environmental affairs. The return of Trump would also mean threats to pull out of NATO, while the Biden Administration has been toiling to improve transatlantic relationships. Having a President in the US who has a history of pulling out of critical relationships, the Paris agreement, one out of many, could potentially elevate tensions within the international community regarding support for international conventions and agreements. The consequences of Trump pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by the P5+1 are surfacing today as Iran has moved significantly closer to a nuclear weapon since American Withdrawal. While Trump’s policies concentrate on ‘Making America Great Again’, Trump forgets the ‘greatness’ often attributed to the United States stems from its role in International negotiations and diplomatic affairs.
The international community must focus on strengthening treaty obligations to prepare for not just Donald Trump but any other leader who comprises International law. International law must not be left in peril if one country decides to back out of its obligations. It is also time for the international community to recognize American aversion to international conventions, which long precedent Trump. Maybe it is time for the international community to stop seeking the U.S stamp of approval’ to negotiate and enforce key international treaties. The role of the US in the United Nations, a key financial player and its role in the Security Council cannot be ignored. However, the parties to these treaties must try to achieve the mandate of these treaties irrespective of what U.S foreign diplomacy is. It is time we stop allowing America to negotiate international treaties they refuse to ratify.
While many Democrats undermine Trump’s return, the businessman’s ability to overcome his setbacks and scandals is unprecedented in US History. His position against China has laid a model that the Biden Administration follows to date, and his role in mediating between many Arab nations and Israel, along with his continued influence on voters despite being outside the game, points to his flair, and this must not be underestimated. While 2024 seems far away, election propaganda is soon to follow. It would be exciting to observe how he navigates through campaigning while being banned on both Facebook and Twitter, which played an instrumental role in elections in many past elections. The international community must closely observe Trump’s journey to candidature because his actions could impact international affairs and diplomacy even way before being elected as president. One can wait and see if the ‘MAGA’ Man has learned from his mistakes and would pay heed to international diplomacy and laws.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
