On 11th of February, 2022 the Biden administration released its Indo-Pacific Strategy, that has the underling objective of protecting its status as the region’s main super-power, with the delineated strategy naming Vietnam as one of the US´s government most important regional partners.
This consideration follows the strategic trend of the US regarding Vietnam in the last years, with United States having given an increasing level of strategic support to Vietnam and being a central element for the improvement of Vietnams maritime law enforcement capabilities, with some of the measures including the transfer of equipment and ships to the Vietnamese Coast Guard since 2017.
Additionally, the FY 2016 National Defence Authorization Act, in its section No 1263-also commonly known as the Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Initiative specifies that Vietnam is, given its central geo-political importance in the South-East region of Asia, one of the top 7 most important strategic states for the US to provide assistance and training, an initiative that will remain in effect until December 2025 with the goal of raising maritime security in the South China Sea and deter Chinese power.
This article provides an analysis on the future development of Vietnams regional alliances, its behaviour with the US and what can be expected as well as how the war of Ukraine, China, Australia and Russia play a role in it.
In 2019, Vietnam hosted a strategic meeting with the then Australian prime-minister Scott Morrison in order to deepen its relations with Australia and create an alliance that could fit both of the countries security imperative of defending their geo-political autonomy in the Pacific from the continuing growth of Chinas power in it.
This has been specifically relevant in the South China sea where Hanoi and Beijing have already had strong diplomatic tensions and standoffs over territorial disputes caused by Chinas expansionist defence island chain policies.
Throughout these years there have also been early signs of a united response to the strategic challenge China poses to both countries with Vietnam´s leadership openly denying the installation of Chinese’s 5G Huawei technology from the Chinese tech giant Huawei along with Australia which did the same and has continuously pressured its allies in the region to follow suit.
Sources native to Vietnam guarantee that the diplomatic language of Australia in the past years translate a will of support for Vietnam that will surpass trade and be one of creating alongside the US and tight security relationship in order to face effectively China, with Vietnam expecting Australia to support Hanoi in the South China Sea issue as well as the Code of Conduct negotiations.
Vietnam has put an emphasis on the strategic importance of the South China Sea for the preservation of a stable peace in the region and for maritime freedom of movement which has driven the alliance shared sense of regional security responsibility.
However, similar to Australia, Vietnam always has to carefully balance taking a strong position regarding China towards its expansionism over its shared national security interests to preserve its relationship with Beijing or in the least keep it as peaceful as possible given the deep economic relationship it has with China.
Diplomacy has so far been Vietnam´s strong point and Hanoi´s leadership has focused a lot of its resources in diversifying its foreign affairs relationships.
Throughout a series of recent international diplomatic victories, Vietnam has consistently sought support on its maritime disputes with reports of Hanoi briefing India about its increasingly tense relationship with China in the South China Sea as well as Australia, having gained both of their regional strategic support.
Here one can see already an alliance taking place that will inevitably force Vietnam to make a position and side with Australia and India under the umbrella leadership of the US to effectively deter the growth of Chinese regional dominance.
After the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February, there has been an increasing controversy over the response that Vietnam has given to the overall situation, refraining itself from calling Putin’s military campaign an “invasion” and openly abstaining itself from the UN resolution condemning Russia´s military assault on Ukraine.
This does not come as a surprise to those that are familiar with Vietnam´s historical diplomatic attitude of prudence since Vietnam does not seek to be again in the position it was in the Cold War as a geo-political victim of the Washington-Moscow-Beijing triangle.
This is also because Hanoi sees both the US and Russia as important strategic partners for Vietnams defence calculations, particularly when it comes to dealing with Beijing.
Its also important to have into account that Russia was the first state to establish a strategic partnership with Vietnam in 2001 and it also shares “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China and India, with Russia remaining the leading energy partner of Vietnam.
On the other hand, Vietnam also regards with great strategic value its relation with Washington and understands that its strategic partnership with Australia is also dependent on its relation with the US in order to guarantee its much needed maritime security and effectively deter China in its territorial disputes with Beijing.
Washington has increasingly presented itself has the only viable partner on the long term to guarantee Vietnam´s security while at the same time Moscow, Vietnams traditional friend, has quietly backed Hanoi by staying persistent in its oil and gas cooperation with Hanoi.
Consequently, Vietnam is still actively trying to maintain its ties with both old and new partners through a gambit of strategic omni-directional engagement in an attempt to maintain neutrality and avoid putting all its eggs on the Australia and US-India alliance and maintain a relation with China and Russia.
However, one must have into account that this delicate balance produced by Hanoi in its relation with both states has created a sense in complacency in Hanoi which will not last long under the increasing intensity of the Ukraine conflict which will inevitably accelerate the pressure to side with the US and inevitably by reaction become more assertive in its confrontation with China.
It is well to have into strategic account that nations are prone to getting trapped in the dilemma of pursuing pragmatic gains while putting in second place “principles” when power is at play.
Inevitably, Vietnam´s will be pushed into rewriting its strategy which until very recently has been guided by the parties four “no´s”: no military alliances, no foreign military bases inside its territory, no to allowing the use of its territory as leverage to counteract other states and no threat or use of force in dealing with other states.
With the Ukraine crisis, Hanoi´s Foreign Relations ministry has underlined the strategic need for all relevant parties to abide by the UN Charter and the “basic principles of international law” in regards to a refrain for the use of force and to seek a peaceful resolution and “cooperation in the region and the world”.
It should be added that the process of the change in Vietnam´s attitude can already be seen in its official statement that hinted at an implicit criticism of Russia´s actions as they violated the principles of the Charter.
The question is thus not how far will the tightrope go on its simultaneous relation with Moscow and Beijing while it also has a strong relation with the US but rather how will it break with the answer depending ultimately on how long will Vietnam have the ability to continue to maintain and enhance in a non-confrontational manner its capacity for a strong national defence and robust economy in an increasingly more volatile and polarized multilateral world.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
