South Africa, one of Africa´s most powerful economies and the most relevant state of the southern region of the continent is increasingly at risk of collapsing due to a high crisis in its energy sector that is increasing getting more out of control and effectively is stopping the economy from function.
This crisis can ultimately lead to the collapse of the state which is already under deep stress due to its structural corruption, putting effectively the stability and unity of the rainbow nation at stake.
The situation has gotten to the point of where the US embassy has officially made a public emergency advisory remark where it advised Americans in South Africa to have at least seventy-two hours’ worth of food and first need goods in case the power would be fully out.
This has already taken place in numerous parts of the country which have become used to living without electricity for hours at a time.
Additionally, in January, the US State Department´s Overseas Security Advisory Council held a meeting, which was leaked to journalists in an audio recording, to discuss the need to prepare for a total collapse of South Africa´s power grid.
These emergency warnings have also become more intense after the resignation of Andre de Ruyter as CEO of Eskom in December 2022, with the former CEO having been brought to create desperately needed reforms in a company that is central for the stability of the economy and that was and still is in a deep economic crisis due to heavy corruption and lack of conditions to end the continuous blackouts.
Resistance to reform efforts from both the company and cabinet politicians ultimately left the former CEO De Ruyter in a position where he ultimately made the decision to denounce and bring to public light the extreme levels of corruption existent in the national energy company, denouncing also an assassination attempt on him, having resigned from the position.
This situation exemplifies the extreme institutional levels of corruption that are now putting in danger the energy security of the country.
Without energy, the agriculture sector and basic utilities won’t be able to function which in turn will create further tensions between the different communities of South Africa, putting at stake the stability of the country and ultimately putting it in situation where it might enter in total societal collapse with the state failing to control the situation.
This is a matter of international importance given the fact that South Africa plays a key role in the region’s economic stability, being the main regional economic trading partner of most of its neighbouring states as a well as a heavily populated country that is deeply important in geopolitical terms for the peace of the region.
Instability in South Africa could thus put at risk not only the stability of the economies of the surround states and put at risk the stability of the region.
The state has however made public promises that the electrical grid of the nation, on which much of its most central economic sectors depend on such as agriculture and mining won’t be allowed to completely collapse.
This does not chance the fact that De Ruyter was Eskom’s mostly last hope and that the board is unlikely to find another person competent enough to handle the difficult job of handling such a complex company on which so much depends on, with the additional detail that the rampant corruption will continue and the inevitable result of more grid shutdowns will be riots and humanitarian disaster in South Africa with civil unrest.
One should however comprehend the strategic importance of Eskom and why so much depends on it- with the current situation of the company sitting at the intersection of three problems that responsible for the decline of South Africa- the corruption on politics, institutional and organized crime, and structural incompetence.
Ultimately, it was the politics of South Africa which prevented Eskom from raising the rates throughout the 1990´s and the mid-2000´s when it badly needed revenue in order to build new power stations and replace the already existing ones so that it could assure energy security throughout the country, with cheap electricity was seen as a perk of post-apartheid freedom, and hikes were avoided at all costs out of fear of public backlash which could cost a stable re-election for the country’s main party ANC.
There is also the problem of many South Africans simply refusing to pay their electricity bills, which is also a political problem since the South African political system would not permit Eskom to cut off the great numbers of citizens in the Soweto region which simply put do not pay their electricity.
Eskom is therefore finding its management increasingly more difficult due to it being not possible to collect the tens of billions of rands it is owned by delinquent costumers, and even in the case of vandalism of illegal hook-ups, its efforts end up being futile due to the lack of security and support form the police.
Additionally, the management board of Eskom as been said to be mediocre and not competent by most analysts with Eskom as a parastatal company being a target of aggressive diversity targets under the post-apartheid equity Black Economic Empowerment laws, since in 1995, its senior management was mandated to go from 70 perc cent white to 50 per cent black by 1999 and to 75 per cent by 2005 without having into account the capabilities of people for the jobs.
Although the intention was good, the ultimate effect is that such targets only ended up creating more institutional problems and lack of professional competency, with these targets having been replicated also across all sectors of the South African economy and having also the same effect of spreading incompetence
To had more trouble, the electricity business involves bigger sums of money than water management which is where the third factor in Eskom´s fall comes in- crime with the company being a target of mafia syndicates in a way that other utilities have not because of the black-market value of the commodities it handles, specifically coal but also wires and equipment.
Recent reports by South African journalist Kyle Cowan have brought to light several failures at Eskom facilities, such as downed pylons and jammed coal mills that are a result of sabotage was likely the cause, and although not all of the problems are a result of malice, but as the assassination attempt against De Ruyter, both incompetence and crime have played a role in the current situation.
The security situation has deteriorated to the point that plant managers at Eskom facilities currently need bulletproof vests and armed bodyguards to walk around their own facilities.
Additionally, the fundamental problem that makes Eskom’s situation so intractable that they do not have enough police to watch every employee and consequently, most sabotage cases end up never being resolved, and the effort necessary to turn this situation needs to be much bigger.
Such an effort needed to turn around the situation would require support not only from the political leadership at all levels but also from the law enforcement and bureaucrats which is unlikely to happen.
In regards to its nuclear energy sector, which is dependent on the US government for the maintenance of its infrastructure and nuclear fuel, it´s nuclear power stations are in an increasingly worse state.
This is also because the country in this sector has also been recently penalised by the US for its lack of condemnation to Russia on the UN resolution regarding the Ukraine invasion, with the US now blocking any future sending of nuclear fuel to the country which is much needed for its nuclear sector to keep functioning.
It´s economy is also in shambles and unemployment is increasing, with an increasing number of people being dependent on the state and a mass exodus of educated people getting out of the country as a result of the increasing violence and lack of basic conditions as a result of the energy crisis.
From the strategic perspective of the US, the situation in South Africa is one of great importance and should be ignored and offers strategic opportunities that Washington should not ignore.
Firstly, as previously mentioned, South Africa is a geopolitically and geo-economically critical country for the stability of the southern hemisphere, and a energy crisis that could potentially put at danger its stability would inevitably put at danger the stability of the region, which is something that would inevitably make the states of the region become more dependent on help from China, as Zimbabwe is already an example, with its economy being directly dependent on Beijing.
It is important to have into account that South Africa has some of the biggest gold mine natural reserves in the world and holds a series of other immense quantities of important mineral reserves for technology and industry in its territory.
Allowing the country to continue in the current state of increasing decadence that it’s could not only put in the short term the stability of the supply chain of the worlds gold at stake but create also a opportunity for China to take over most of those same resources if the US fails to maintain its influence in SA.
The US should present help to SA in exchange of its state changing its position in relation to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Saving the SA democracy from implosion by promoting anti-corruption initiatives a more stable economy where its once affordable and functioning electric energy system is again secured is also a politically and morally important for the US since the US government had a central role in helping the rainbow nation establish its democracy and end apartheid.
Allowing South African society to be depleted of basic goods that depend on a stable energy grid would escalate an already tense and highly violent society with systemic challenges that stem from its troubled past and the social-economic and demographic inequalities of the country.
It should thus be a strategic priority in Africa for the US to help re-establish order and help in assuring the energy security that South Africa needs to remain a functioning economy.
A potential positive outcome that could be arranged in exchange for the SA government to side with the US and for a series of new trade and mining deals that would benefit US economy and inter-link South African economy with the US economy, thus ensuring that China does not take advantage of one of the most strategically important states of the African continent.
One thing is certain- the South African government has already proven that alone it will not be capable of repairing the institutional and structural damage that has been done to energy security in the country, and thus therefore is in desperate and inevitable need of international help.
By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
