From the 1st of January 2022, Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea have been excluded from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This program provides access to Sub-Saharan African nations to a duty free trade program. They have been excluded due to the fact that they breached a clause concerning human rights protection, good governance and transparency.
Human rights, Good Governance and Economy intertwinned: the context of the withdrawal
Already in November 2021, the US President Biden threatened Ethiopia’s government of the potential termination of the commercial advantages. The prime minister, who has been granted the Nobel Peace prize in 2018, is being accused of leading a defensive politic against the Tigray People’s liberation Front, breaching international law (mass killing, sexual violence and refusal of aid delivery to counter famine-like conditions). Despite his promise to not advance in the disputed territory if the rebels withdrew their forces, he led an offence against them. This is a behaviour that the US’s government judges against the eligibility requirements to be a member of the program.
Likewise, Mali and Guinea underwent coups leading to non-democratical actions and instability in the countries’ institutions. Indeed, Mali saw its third coup within sixteen months, since militaries are stoling from each other the power. The last president in interim just extended his functions from six months to five years, justifying it by a decision of the transitional assembly. Such a long mandate shall be dedcided by the people through a democratical election. As for Guinea, a coup occured also in September 2021, overthrowing the government, which was accused by the people of a bloody repression during an anti-government demonstration. Guinean people are supporting this un-elected and military government despite international call for a democratical election.
From this picture it is understandable, why the US whidrew their support, but let the door open for a renewed membership in case the situation came back in line with the requirements of the program.
The consequences of the withdrawal: a couter-intuitive decision?
This withdrawal can be seen as economic sanctions targeting the government. However, it is the population, who will suffer the most from it. Because of the program they has the opportunity to export to the US at a lower cost, therefore increase their national growth, which would lead to job opportunities and wealth creation. This hope could be dreamed in Ethiopia for example with the growing textile industry, which could have become a manufacturing hub. Among the conflict situation, which led to the withdrawal and the covid pandemy, those countries did not need in addition an economical desaster. Therefore, this move is counterproductive and disproportionate, since it destroys all efforts provided by the program since two decades now. It impacts greatly the vulnerable population and does not end the conflict at hand. It does not provide any diplomatical help in order to deal with pushing for democratical election or intervening in the Tigray blood-bath started a year ago. By only closing the door, the US is only worsening the situation, it should have chnage the type of help, from a commercial to a political one. Moreover, by providing commercial help to a great amount of african countries, the US did not prevent those kinds of situation. Despite an economical growth, good governance and human right protection have worsen in some countries. If commercial help does not ensure those principles, what will?
China as a threat to US/ Africa interests?
In fact, by this decision, the US leave the field clear for China involvement in Africa. Even before the withdrawal, commercial transactions between the US and Africa decreased instead of those with China, which expanded largely. China is the biggest commercial partner of the african continent and is the leader in foreign direct investment and development loans in the Sub-Saharan regions. So, will the withdrawal be that dramatic for the three countries? It will since the US are better at investing on human capital whereas China is better at financing infrastructures’ construction. Nonetheless, the chinese effect on african’s economy is more outstanding than the US one and is therefore priviledged by africans’ leaders approaching elections. Therefore, the US are loosing their negotiating leverage, since African countries become less dependent of their help. Moreover, the US (and also the EU) become less attractive than China, due to its principle of non-interference in the sovereign affairs of African nations. Indeed, while concluding an agreement with foreign countries the US (and the EU) have some requirements linked to human rights and good governance, that some africans leaders do not want to follow or be judged on. Besides, it remains a common thought that it is the western countries, which are responsible for the messy situation in Africa due to the colonial legacy. Thus, China appears more than never to be the most attractive solution, but it is not a long lasting one. By only counting on China’s help, the Sub-Saharan African countries only benefit from one type of help: construction and not also education as provided by the US. Both countries shall forget about their national interests over african natural resources and desire or hegemony on a future important economic actor, but shall keep in mind the continent’s population interest for democracy, food security and stable and prosperious country free from conflict. Yet, this will never happen if they are waiting for one of both party common sense, but the African countries need to cooperate in order to influence help with a common purpose from the US and China. It already has been seen that countries excluded from the AGOA has been reintegrated, such as Niger, Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire in 2011, after they organised democratical elections. Hopes are not lost, but it means pragmatically that the military power need to decide to confer its power to the civilian society and let election occured and that a ceasefire and peace negotiation are settled.
Bibliography:
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By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
