In September 2021, SCO launched officially the procedure to include Iran in its organization. With this new member the SCO is still expanding its territory over Asia, raising the number of inhabitants concerned directly by the organization and under the power of it, and gaining international status adding a democratic country. This diversity can be a powerful asset but also the strongest shortcoming of the organization.
A growing player in the international and regional security…
Originally created in 2001 as a confidence-building forum to demilitarize borders, SCO increased its members and developed its goals, including now: military and couterterrorism cooperation, intelligence sharing and also a focus on economic intiatives such as the China-led Silk Road Economic Belt and the Russian-led eurasian economic union.
Its power derived from the fact that two of its members are permanent members of the UN security council, some represent half of the world’s nuclear powers and three are of the most powerful oil and gaz powers. In addition of representing forty-four percent of the world population, SCO get a voice heard by other regional and international organizations. Indeed, in cooperation with the UN it organized the event: ‘The UN and SCO in the fight against Drugs: common threats and Join Actions’ in 2017. Pragmatically, it can be asserted that the gravity center no longer remains in the euro-atlantic world but is rather shifting to Asia. Moreover, with the US withdrawal of its troups in Afghanistan, US gave the exclusive control to China and russia in the Asian continent. The common desire shared by China and Russia to build a new international order based on illiberal ideas is more than possible.
Besides, in order to be able to stand its positions on security, CSO needs to finance it. It did by creating a new international institution: AAIB, in concurrence with the World Bank. This has been encouraged by the former US monopoly over the economy of the developing countries like Pakistan, which is now taking back control over its economy and empowering itself on the political diplomacy also. It was possible through the creation of bilateral or multilateral partnerships and the coordination of strategies during meetings, such as the one hosted in India in December 2021 on securing cyberspace in teh contemporary threat environment for SCO countries.
If India’s application to become a SCO’s member has finally been accepted (since 2005), it is due to the waiving of the UN sanctions but also on Tajikistan’s willingness to go over its different on Iran’s support to the Islamic movement of Tajikistan.
Furthermore, SCO has two permanent headquarters: the secretariat and the Regional Anti-terrorist Structure, which confer to it the character of a serious and permanent organization, being more than countries gathering for topical issues in the neighbourhood. SCO is becoming a deterrent organization with enough weight to influence the world’s straterigc balance of power and political stability.
…But still a new player with shortcomings
By looking closely at the eight members of the organization, almost all are US nemesis. Therefore, rather than being countries willing to cooperate on security issue, they can also be seen as anti-US bulwark. What would be their legitimacy? Rebels of the settled international order?
The second major defect is the internal rivality. How can an organization, which is supposed to see countries of a same region cooperate on one purpose, can work if they distrust each other? Despite their principles of non-agression and non-interference with internal affairs, the consensual decision-making will be a problem for futur major decision, which will need to be taken quickly to afford an effective answer to it. In addition of the decision-making problem, the SCO does not afford their ideas and positions. The institutions are underfunded, which unable them to take decisions independently from members’ government. They can only pursue a micro agenda, which undermines their group’s cohesion and increase the internal mistrust. For example, the situation in Afghanistan represents a threat to their regional stability and now that they have the field clear from the American’s interference, no important decision has been taken.
Lastly, from a pragmatic stand, this cooperation is largely benefiting China (and Russia in a lesser extent since their cooperation depends more on necessity than mutual trust). Indeed, China has use the cooperation in order to extend its defensive perimeter into Central Asia, to use a broader play ground to carry out military exercises and develop diplomatic relationships. All of it facilitates its power’s projection. Since the origin of SCO, China is using the organization in a self-centered manner, to protect its internal and international interests. For example, in 2005 it feared that the coups and the popular uprising in Uzbekistan and Kyrgystan would fuel instability, and anti-governemental actions. And in nowadays conflict with the US, there is a greater opportunity for China and risk for US that China would be able to leverage its membership to the SCO to impede US armed forces to operate in Central Asia.
The notes to take from it is that China grew significantly within the last decades and since it benefits from a strong regional support it could use its gained experience to help situation farther its borders. In the case that those operations are conducted in line with international laws, China could be a major international asset to deal with international security, if done in collaboration with the US. However, if China is using its powers and experiences to defy once more the US, it could lead to operational challenged for the US military. It already happened during the Nepal’s hearthquake, where China’s collaboration could have saved avoidable losses. Moreover, China and the US have common terrorist targets and non-cooperation in this area could make those already dilicate situation unmanageable and unsucceful. Therefore, in order for the SCO to be considered as a cornerstone international organization in security issues, it needs to think with an international mindset and not power extension or reprisals. To get this international organisazion status, it needs to evolve and start the dialogue with all important actors of the area.
Bibliography
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By The European Institute for International Law and International Relations.
